The scheme certificate target is the total number of Peak Reduction Certificates (PRCs) required to be surrendered in a Peak Demand Reduction Scheme (PDRS) compliance period. It is used by Scheme Participants to calculate their individual certificate target.

The scheme certificate target for the 2022–23 compliance year is 3,911,112 PRCs.

Calculating the scheme certificate target

The scheme certificate target is calculated from the forecast peak demand, the peak demand reduction target for the compliance period, and the number of hours within the peak demand reduction period in one day, as follows:

Scheme certificate target equals forecast peak demand in megawatts multiplied by peak demand reduction target percentage multiplied by 10000 multiplied by number of hours within a peak demand reduction period in a day

Forecast peak demand is determined using the summer 10% probability of exceedance (POE) maximum operational demand forecast, central scenario, as specified in a statement of opportunities published by the Australian Energy Market Operator. The forecast peak demand is adjusted to remove the Australian Capital Territory’s demand (4.7% of NSW forecast demand), according to clause 86 of the Act and the PDRS Compliance Rule.

The forecast peak demand for NSW in the 2022–23 compliance year is 13,037.04 megawatts.

Calculating the 2022–23 scheme certificate target

Using the formula above and the following 2022–23 compliance period data:

  • forecast peak demand of 13,037.04 megawatts
  • peak demand reduction target of 0.5%
  • peak demand reduction period of 6 hours (2:30 to 8:30 pm)

the 2022–23 scheme certificate target is calculated as:

13,037.04 × 0.5% × 10,000 × 6 = 3,911,112 PRCs